What Signals Does The Growth In Excavator Sales Convey?

According to data released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 12376 excavators of various types were sold in January 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. This also means that excavator sales have finally turned positive after experiencing 12 consecutive months of negative year-on-year growth.

As an important indicator of the prosperity of the construction machinery industry, the positive growth rate of excavator sales is of great significance. It not only reflects the continuous recovery of China's construction machinery market, but also reflects the continuous increase in the operating rate of infrastructure projects.

The growth rate of excavator sales has turned positive, thanks to the contribution of overseas orders, equipment updates and upgrades under the background of emission upgrades, as well as the new demand brought about by the accelerated landing of infrastructure investment. Since the beginning of 2024, various regions across the country have actively planned and laid out their strategies, striving to boost the economy and promote project commencement and construction progress. The domestic construction machinery market has ushered in a positive trend during the off-season.

The latest data from CCTV Finance Excavator Index shows that the overall operating rate of construction machinery in China was 47.81% in January, higher than the 40.61% in January 2023, laying the foundation for a successful start to the economy in 2024. Major construction machinery manufacturers, including Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Lovol Heavy Industry, Liugong, etc., have returned to work and production successively, and the first batch of orders have been delivered in the the Year of the Loong New Year. The prosperity of one industry drives the prosperity of all industries. As the effect of real estate infrastructure policies gradually becomes apparent and the expectation of stable growth increases, domestic demand for excavators will gradually stabilize and rise.

Hu Qimu, a special researcher of the China Enterprise Federation, believes that with increasing investment in infrastructure, it will provide effective support for stable economic growth in 2024 and also drive consumption of construction machinery. March will enter the traditional sales peak season for excavators. With the increase in downstream project construction rates after the Spring Festival, the overall sales situation in China is expected to achieve growth in the first quarter of this year. Many industry insiders remain optimistic about the overall industry trend for the whole year. However, some business leaders have also admitted that although a good start at the beginning of the year boosted market confidence, the following market situation is also affected by multiple factors such as domestic and foreign demand, and the volume of infrastructure projects.

Officials from companies such as Lovol Heavy Industry told reporters, "Due to the official switch of the National III emission standard for construction machinery to the National IV emission standard starting from December 1, 2022, the entire construction machinery industry, including the excavator industry, will be affected to some extent by the overdraft effect in 2023. However, by 2024, the relevant influencing factors have faded and it is expected to return to a normal market supply-demand dominant state.", In January 2023, due to the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, the construction time was relatively short, and the production and sales base was low, which was also one of the reasons for the year-on-year growth in excavator sales.

Qiu Shiliang, Co Director of Zhejiang Securities Research Institute, said, "Currently, the domestic market is mainly driven by demand for excavator updates. Based on the eighth year of excavator updates as the peak period, it is expected that the demand for excavator updates in China will bottom out from 2023 to 2024 and a new cycle of updates will begin."

Institutions such as China Chengxin International believe that after experiencing rapid growth in the past two years, the industry's exports have entered a steady development stage, and the growth rate of export sales may further slow down. The high performance growth brought about by the high overseas revenue growth in the early stage may gradually enter a bottleneck period. Hu Qimu said: "The weakening of overseas demand for construction machinery in the short term is affected by the interest rate increase cycle of the Federal Reserve. In the long term, with the launch of the joint construction of the the Belt and Road, overseas sales of construction machinery still have greater room for growth. In this process, domestic leading enterprises will also accelerate their growth."

Currently, new energy excavators such as electric and hydrogen energy have begun to enter the public eye, and electric technology has been preliminarily applied in the field of excavators. With the drive of environmental policies, the electrification of excavators has gradually become the mainstream trend of industry development. Electric excavators have not only become an important promotional point for enterprises, but also a new breakthrough point for enterprises to compete in the market.